It's been seven days since we've done an online update for COVID-19. Taking a week off to move my youngest nearly 10 hours away for his first post-college job, what is striking is how much the numbers have jumped in the span of seven short days. It's so easy to become numb to ever-rising daily counts, but when you step back and look at numbers across time, it's a stark reminder of our collective failure to stem the tide this pandemic and our governor's continued refusal to implement any type of statewide mask mandate that might help slow infection rates, the rising numbers of hospitalizations and mounting body count.

One month ago today on Nov. 16, media outlets reported the state had 'shattered' its single-day record with 7,951 COVID-19 cases reported in 24 hours. After seeing daily counts of 11,352 on Sunday, 10,319 on Monday, 'only' 8,251 yesterday and 11,410 today ... last month's record-breaker is a bleak reminder of how quickly this pandemic has spiraled out of control. On Nov. 16, the state had 318, 888 confirmed cases and 3,923 fatalities. Today, we have 484,285 confirmed cases and 5,669 deaths from the virus. Even in the last week, the number of cases is up 61,323 and 497 more Tennesseans lost to this virus.

Tennessee and Ohio had to have a new color designated on the U.S. COVID map because we are the highest in new cases per million per day, according to the COVID Tracking Project. This is hardly an area where we want to claim leadership. Yet, without a coordinated federal or state plan, it shouldn't be shocking to anyone.

Metro Nashville

As of 9:30 today, the city reported 57,840 confirmed cases, an increase of 6,207 since this time last week ... an average of nearly 900 new cases/day. There are currently 5,707 active cases in Nashville compared to 3,009 at this time last week, 51,715 inactive or recovered cases (up from 48,234 last Wednesday) and 503 active hospitalizations (up from 444 this time last week). With 418 deaths (up 28 in a week), the city has a case fatality rate of 0.72% (actually down from 0.76% last week and significantly lower than the state rate of 1.22%). In Davidson County, 731,957 tests have been administered with an overall positive rate of 9.4% (and a 7-day testing percent positive of 15.6% ... up from 14.9% last Wednesday).

Out of 8 metrics on the trend lines, Nashville has 2 in the green, 2 in the yellow and 4 in the red - transmission rate, hospital ICU bed capacity, new cases per 100,000 residents and seven-day positivity rate. With a goal for transmission to be less than 1.00, the city's current transmission rate of 1.28, keeping the city in the red. The 14-day case trend is in the yellow with new cases categorized as having a 'slight' increase. Public health and testing capacity remain in the green, as they have throughout.

As of 9:30 am this morning, hospital floor bed capacity remained in the yellow with 11% availability (down from 17% last Wednesday), and ICU beds are in the red with current availability at 7% capacity (up from 10% last Wednesday). The goal for both hospital and ICU bed capacity is 20%.

The New Cases per 100K Residents has remained in the red for the last few weeks but has taken a sharp uptick. The goal of the seven-day rolling average is to be less than 10. Currently, Nashville sits at 91.9 as of 9:30 am this morning (up from 65.1 at 9:30 am last Wednesday). The goal for the 7-Day Positivity Rate is to see a figure at 10% or less. Currently, Nashville is now in the red with a rate of 15.6% (up slightly from 14.9% a week ago).

More detailed data is available on the Metro Dashboard. Click here for details.

Nashville remains in a modified Phase 3 of COVID Reopening with new restrictions having been put in place over the last couple of weeks, including the Rule of 8 for indoor gatherings without a pre-approved event plan. The city also continues its mask mandate, with several nearby counties having reinstated similar mandates after letting them expire earlier. Governor Bill Lee extended the Tennessee State of Emergency tied to COVID-19 through Dec. 29.

Tennessee State

As of this afternoon, the Tennessee Department of Health (TDH) confirmed an additional 11,410 new cases of COVID-19 with the state total hitting 484,285. There are currently 2,874 hospitalizations (a net gain of 68 since yesterday) and 5,668 deaths for a death rate of 1.17. More than 5.1 million tests have been administered statewide (up 57,810 in 24 hours) with an 17.75% positive rate for the day. The number of inactive/recovered cases statewide is 411,843 as of this afternoon. Hospital capacity remains a concern with availability of 12% of floor beds (1,334 beds) and 8% of ICU beds (168 beds) open statewide.