With a more contagious variant of the COVID virus now identified in several states, it is only a matter of time before the strain arrives in Tennessee ... and, indeed, is probably already here. Although not thought to be more virulent, a faster spreading version on top of anticipated increased cases following the end-of-year holidays is the stuff of nightmares for providers across the country. While active cases in Nashville are actually down some from a week ago, active hospitalizations are up. For the past week in both Nashville and the state, the current positivity rate shows more than 1 of every 5 people tested is coming back positive.

Metro Nashville

As of 9:30 today, the city reported 71,936 confirmed cases, an increase of 345 in 24 hours. There are currently 6,684 active cases in Nashville, 64,181 inactive or recovered cases and 550 active hospitalizations. With 495 deaths, the city has a case fatality rate of 0.69%. In Davidson County, 820,808 tests have been administered with an overall positive rate of 10.2% (and a 7-day testing percent positive of 21.5%).

Out of 8 metrics on the trend lines, Nashville has 2 in the green, 2 in the yellow and 4 in the red - 14-day new case trend, ICU bed capacity, new cases per 100,000 residents and seven-day positivity. With a goal for transmission to be less than 1.00, the city's current transmission rate of 1.01. The 14-day case trend continues in the red with new cases categorized as increasing. Public health and testing capacity remain in the green, as they have throughout.

As of 9:30 am this morning, hospital floor bed capacity remained in the yellow with 12% availability, while ICU beds have dropped to 7% capacity. The goal for both hospital and ICU bed capacity is 20%. I

The New Cases per 100K Residents has remained in the red for the last few weeks but has taken a sharp uptick recently. The goal of the seven-day rolling average is to be less than 10. Currently, Nashville sits at 93.3 as of 9:30 am this morning. The goal for the 7-Day Positivity Rate is to see a figure at 10% or less. Currently, Nashville is in the red with a rate of 21.5%.

More detailed data is available on the Metro Dashboard. Click here for details.

Nashville remains in a modified Phase 3 of COVID Reopening with new restrictions having been put in place over the last couple of weeks, including the Rule of 8 for indoor gatherings without a pre-approved event plan. The city also continues its mask mandate, with several nearby counties having reinstated similar mandates after letting them expire earlier. Governor Bill Lee extended the Tennessee State of Emergency tied to COVID-19 through February 27.

Tennessee State

As of this afternoon, the Tennessee Department of Health reported 617.649 cases of COVID-19 across the state (up 5,399 from the day before) with 539,207 cases defined as recovered or inactive. Currently, there are 3,246 hospitalizations (a net increase of 22 over the previous day), and 7,267 deaths from the virus statewide (an increase of 99 in 24 hours) for a death rate of 1.18. The state has conducted nearly 5.7 million tests (an increase of 13,228 in 24 hours) with a 20.85% positivity rate today. Hospital capacities stand at 14% of floor beds (1,665 beds) and 9% of ICU beds (183 beds) available statewide.

For information on vaccination distribution, visit the TDH vaccine dashboard at www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov/covid-19-vaccine-information.html. This dashboard is updated each Tuesday and Friday.