With news of additional vaccine orders, solid protection against severe disease from the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and moderating numbers of infection and hospitalizations, many have felt hopeful that we might turn the corner on COVID-19 by summer. However, the South African strain has now been identified in the United States with the first two cases cropping up in South Carolina in two patients without connection or recent travel. Deaths, which are a lagging indicator, are also a stark reminder that while there might be light up ahead, we are still in a dark moment in American history with more than 4,000 neighbors across the U.S. and more than 100 here in Tennessee dying from the virus yesterday.

With hope on the horizon for more vaccination doses, Mayor John Cooper has announced the Music City Center will be used as a mass vaccination site beginning this weekend. However, appointments are still required and the city continues to be in phase 1a1/1a2 with a focus on healthcare workers and residents ages 75 and above. Appointments should be made by calling 615.862.7777 or going online to asafenashville.org.

As hospitalizations and new cases have decreased over the past days, Mayor Cooper also announced a slight loosening of restrictions beginning Feb. 1, 2021. This coming Monday, restaurants and bars allowed to remain open an extra hour with new patrons allowed to arrive up until 11 pm and a closing time of midnight. Restaurants that neither serve nor permit alcohol can resume normal operational hours. Mask mandates and social distancing requirements remain in place.

Metro Nashville

As of 9:30 today, the city reported 83,768 confirmed cases, an increase of 541 in 24 hours. There are currently 4,774 active cases in Nashville, 78,423 inactive or recovered cases and 370 active hospitalizations. With 571 deaths, the city has a case fatality rate of 0.68%. In Davidson County, the number of tests given is 916,638 with an overall positivity rate of 10.5% and a seven-day positivity rate of 10.6%

Out of 8 metrics on the trend lines, Nashville has 4 in the green, 2 in the yellow and 2 in the red (ICU bed capacity & new cases per 100,000). With a goal for transmission to be less than 1.00, the city's current transmission rate is in the green at 0.81. The 14-day case trend is in the green with new cases categorized as decreasing. Public health and testing capacity remain in the green, as they have throughout.

As of 9:30 am this morning, hospital floor bed capacity remained in the yellow with 13% availability, while ICU beds are still in the red at 8% capacity. The goal for both hospital and ICU bed capacity is 20%.

The New Cases per 100K Residents has remained in the red for weeks. The goal of the seven-day rolling average is to be less than 10. Currently, Nashville sits at 51.2 as of 9:30 am this morning, but the figure is trending in the right direction after surpassing 96 earlier this month. The goal for the 7-Day Positivity Rate is to see a figure at 10% or less. Currently, Nashville is in the yellow with a rate of 10.6%

More detailed data is available on the Metro Dashboard. Click here for details.

Nashville remains in a modified Phase 3 of COVID Reopening, including the Rule of 8 for indoor gatherings without a pre-approved event plan, 50% capacity for restaurants and 10 pm last call for food & beverages. The city also continues its mask mandate. Governor Bill Lee extended the Tennessee State of Emergency tied to COVID-19 through February 27.

Vaccinations are in the 1a1/1a2/75+ phase, which means high exposure healthcare workers, long term care residents and staff, first responders, those ages 75 and older, outpatient healthcare workers and mortuary workers should be, or will soon be, eligible for vaccines. With attention turned toward vaccination, assessment sites are closed currently on weekends.

Tennessee State

As of yesterday afternoon, the Tennessee Department of Health reported 717,583 cases of COVID-19 across the state (up 1,777 from the day before) with 672,110 cases defined as recovered or inactive. Currently, there are 1,857 hospitalizations (a net decrease of 142 from the previous day), and 9,417 deaths from the virus statewide (an increase of 101 in 24 hours) for a death rate of 1.31. The state has conducted more than 6.2 million tests (an increase of 13,969 in 24 hours) with an 12.81% positivity rate for the day. Hospital capacities stand at 14% of floor beds (1,681 beds) and 11% of ICU beds (215 beds) available statewide. After peaking on Jan. 6, hospitalizations are down more than 40% over the last two weeks.

As of Jan. 28, 578,954 vaccines had been administered across the state, and increase of 134,890 vaccines since 1/21/21. Currently, 6.34% of Tennesseans have received at least 1 dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. For more detailed information on vaccination distribution, visit the TDH vaccine dashboard at www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov/covid-19-vaccine-information.html. This dashboard is updated each Tuesday and Friday.